Effects: (what you partially know)
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Melting of Ice caps and Rise in sea level
- The coast lines would disappear and cities
such as UK, Bejing, Washington DC, substantial portions of Bangladesh, etc
will be below sea level.
- Above sea level area will decrease and
population density will increase. The loss of land per individual will be
substantial, their point as irrelevant it may seem, will be covered
exhaustively.
- The salinity of sea would fluctuate and will
cause mass migrations and extinction of species under water.
- The land that would come near the
coast lines now will be saline and agriculturally unusable. This will cause
droughts in those areas. The existing vegetation will also be destroyed.
- The oceanic currents would change and storms
and tides would become unpredictable in certain parts of the world.
- Dramatic temperature shifts have happened in
the past, driven partly by changes in a major ocean currents. A "great ocean
conveyor" helps transport heat around the globe via surface and deep-sea
movements of water. Scientists are exploring whether global warming might slow
or shut it down - a scenario considered "low probability, high impact". This
could disrupt mostly wind-driven surface currents such as the Gulf Stream,
which helps to bring milder weather to Northern Europe.
Glacial retreat and depletion of resources of fresh
water
- In areas that are heavily dependent on water
runoff from glaciers that melt during the warmer summer months, a continuation
of the current retreat will eventually deplete the glacial ice and
substantially reduce runoff.
- A reduction in runoff will affect the
ability to irrigate crops and will reduce summer stream flows necessary to
keep dams and reservoirs replenished.
- The fresh water resources will deplete and
river irrigated areas would lose crop yield.
- According to UN climate report, the
Himalayan glaciers that are the principal dry-season water sources of Asia's
biggest rivers - Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, Mekong, Salween and
Yellow - could disappear by 2035 as temperatures rise.
- Approximately 2.4 billion people live in the
drainage basin of the Himalayan rivers. India, China, Pakistan, Afghanistan,
Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar could experience floods followed by severe
droughts in coming decades. In India alone, the Ganges provides water for
drinking and farming for more than 500 million people
Food and agricultural impact
- A rise in the sea level would result in an agricultural land loss, in
particular in areas such as South East Asia. Erosion, submergence of
shorelines.
- Salinity of the water table due to the increased sea levels, could mainly
affect agriculture through inundation of low-lying lands.
- The indirect result of global warming will
effect the food quality. There are some theories that explain that the yield
of the crops would increase due to the warming, but none denies the fact that
the quality of crop yield would be poor. Owing to the combined effect of UV
rays, improper soil and water resources.
Health problems and induced diseases
- Global warming would cause an increase in
rainfall in some areas, which would lead to an increase of atmospheric
humidity and the duration of the wet seasons. Combined with higher
temperatures, these could favor the development of fungal diseases.
- The tropical diseases, that are a result of
the wet and hot climate, will expand geographically.
- Extreme weather events such as heavy
rainfall or droughts often trigger disease outbreaks, especially in poorer
regions where treatment and prevention measures may be inadequate.
- Climate change also has the potential to
impact diseases of plants and animals, and could lead to significant
population declines or even extinction for some threatened or endangered
species. Climate change has been implicated, for example, in the spread and
emergence of marine diseases. This happens for a number of reasons because the
ranges of hosts and pathogens may change, because warming-induced stress may
lower disease resistance, and because microbial and contaminant input from
terrestrial sources may increase due to runoff from heavy rainfall events.
- The increased precipitation
apparently enhances food resources for small mammals that serve as hosts for
the infected fleas. The moister climate may also promote flea survival and
reproduction.
- With sufficient moisture, warmer
temperatures will generally cause an increase in mosquito abundance, biting
rates, and activity level, and will accelerate the incubation of the parasites
and viruses within them.
- Poverty induced diseases will
also be a major concern in developing nations.
Mass migration and economic impact
- As substantial portions of Bangladesh and Pakistan would be lost to rise
in the sea level, human migration will be major economic problem for India, as
the relations with these neighboring countries are still in jeopardy,
terrorism and wars can be foreseen.
- Vegetation will be effected in countries like Bangladesh and natural
resources would continue to deteriorate at a fast peace.
- One of the biggest unknowns for south Asia is, how the monsoonal climate
will be affected. The duration and total precipitation are all critical
factors in determining the health of India’s agricultural sector. According to
food and agricultural organization study done in 2006, 45% of the variation in
India’s GDP over the last 50 years can be explained by the fluctuations in
rainfall.
- Nations like India, where close to 700 million people living in rural
areas who depend directly on climate sensitive sectors like agriculture,
forest and fisheries, will face brunt of the consequences of the climate
change. Reports project that in next few decades millions of people will be
compelled to relocate due to drought induced by the climate change.
- Future climate and its impact could well trigger bloody wars fought over
access to basic necessities like drinking water.
- Not only would the melt destroy the world’s freshwater reservoirs, it is
projected to cause floods and droughts , reduce the area of arable land,
adversely impact fish and food stocks, erode coastlines as sea levels rise and
trigger large movement of populations to safer areas.
The food chain and ecological cycle
- In the journal Nature researchers say in
their study, Extinction Risk From Climate Change, concluded that from 15 to
37% of all the species in the regions studied could be driven to extinction by
the climate changes between now and 2050. The study's lead author, Professor
Chris Thomas, of the University of Leeds, UK, says: "If the projections can be
extrapolated globally, and to other groups of land animals and plants, our
analyses suggest that well over a million species could be threatened with
extinction."
- Disappearing plankton- bottom of the food
chain : Plankton are a major carbon sink in addition to the forests, other
green plants, the permafrost, the earth's soil and atmosphere. Plankton take
in about half of all the world's CO2, using the carbon for growth, while
releasing oxygen during the process of photosynthesis. Phytoplankton absorb
and fix carbon that is then transferred to the deep ocean. If in fact the
oceans are losing nitrogen as they warm, they will tend to absorb less carbon,
boosting the rate of carbon dioxide buildup in the atmosphere.
Environmental effects
- Extreme temperatures: While average temperatures move only a few degrees,
there is higher likelihood of extreme temperatures, like the European heat
wave of 2003.
- Global drought: Changing water patterns may alter rainfall, bring both
floods and severe drought, especially in Africa.
- Hurricane intensity: With increased temperature comes increased intensity
of hurricanes like Katrina.
Security Risks
- The link between the risk of accelerating climate change and that of
violent conflict and wars has been the subject of debate ever since reports
issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change made it clear that
climate change happening largely because of human activity.
- A European Commission report warns that the European Union and Russia, for
instance, could fight over the resources that could become exploitable in the
Arctic region, following ice melts.
- By planting its flag in the North pole, Russia has made clear its
strategic interest in the region.
- An EU Study describes climate change as a threat multiplier; which could
exacerbate many existing tensions and heighten instability.
- In the context of the Arctic, climate may instigate wars over territorial
rights and trade routes. Since security risks from climate change, like those
from terrorist networks, are global in character, efforts to overcome the
dangers should be supervised by the United Nations.
- A specialist body with representatives from all countries and supported by
contributing scientist, sociologists, conflict managers, disaster management
experts and others could issue global and region-specific guidelines on facing
the climate change challenge.
- A US military advisory board’s study released 2007 warned that
climate change is a serious national security threat and would lead to
instability in geopolitics.
- The UK’s new security strategy includes climate change as a serious threat
alongside terrorism and other risks.
- India, too, needs to recognize that the face of future terrorism is
climate change.
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